Star
Wars Collecting - The 2% Theory
At a party recently, I was asked a question by
Phil Mitzzi, a well known intellectual Star Wars fan and
collector of unique Star Wars merchandise, “what do you
think is the future of Star Wars collections?”. After a
moment of thought I replied, “Only 2% of all Star Wars
collections will exist in 40 years time.” The response
from Phil could only be interpreted as a look of shock, so I
proceeded to explain what is now being dubbed as
‘Darren’s 2% theory’.
It’s likely that everyone reading The
Force magazine will at the very least know of a Star Wars
collector within their social circles. In fact, you yourself
may be a collector in your own right. Either way if you ask
each collector what is the long term future of their
collections, most of them will not really know, however, they
are usually adamant that they will never sell or get rid of
them.
While this perspective is very noble and bodes
well for the future prosperity of Star Wars merchandise,
however I believe that the outcome will be vastly different,
and this is why….
Let us assume for the moment that there are
only 100 hard core Star Wars collectors around (remembering
that it takes years and years to be recognised as a
‘serious’ collector). These are the people who see
collecting merchandise as a reason to exist, to purchase
items seemingly at the expense of their own welfare. These
people are not obsessed to the point of dependence, but in
fact are driven by the need to collect, to meet the
challenges in obtaining new and hard to get items, and to
gradually increase the size of their collections one item at
a time. I’m sure you know people like this, I know I
certainly do. These are the people who need entire bedrooms
to display their vast and impressive collections and for mere
Star Wars fans like us, we are thoroughly amazed by what we
see and as a result cheer our compatriots along.
There is no doubt that Star Wars merchandise
is riding a high wave of popularity at the moment, despite
the unfortunate gluttony of material that appeared after The
Phantom Menace, and the apparent disinterest in Classic
merchandise (circa 1978-1990) - which were once considered to
be highly sought after and prized items. With AOTC
merchandise currently in production and with another Star
Wars film still on the way, along with all the
“Saga” merchandise that will no doubt appear once
the Sextet of films has been completed, it is clear that Star
Wars collecting still has many action packed years left in
it.
Despite the seemingly bright future Star Wars
collections have at this time, there is one unforeseen, and
often unrealised development, which will bring an end to
nearly all of these collections. This is a frailty that the
collectors themselves - along with everyone else - all have
in common. They are human. As humans we all have the same
direct, or indirect, goal that guides us in our society: to
live happily ever after….
The term ‘happily ever after’
primarily entails: owning a home, having a loving husband or
wife, and starting a family. I believe very few, if any,
current Star Wars collectors as described earlier fit into
all three of these categories which I have coequally called
the collecting “categories of doom”. For this
reason the long term future of Star Wars collections remains
clouded.
As you would expect, with one film remaining
in the current series and Star Wars still strong within the
public eye, there is no doubt that the number of existing
Star Wars collections is quite large, but what will happen in
10 years time when the interest Star Wars has waned (as was
the case in the late 1980s)? And perhaps more importantly,
what will happen to these blossoming Star Wars collections
when the collectors themselves suddenly discover that the
“categories of doom” are knocking at their door?
How could these three categories impact a Star
Wars collection? Very easily. For example, what happens if
you move into a new home and it’s not big enough to
house the collection? What happens if your partner does not
share your collecting passion and wants you to refocus your
energy on other things? What happens if the once dedicated
collection room has to make way for new family members? Or
perhaps most frightening of all, what if the collector simply
looses interest in collecting and/or Star Wars itself?
Couldn’t happen you say, well it does and
it has. A scouring of the Trading Post in the Hobbies
Collectables section, or the more commonly accessed online
auction service Ebay, will reveal a number of people who, for
whatever reason, are selling up their Star Wars collections.
These collections are not necessarily small or insignificant
either. In fact, one Melbourne man with the largest
collection of official Star Wars movie posters and printed
material in this country - spanning over 20 years - recently
shocked the Australian Star Wars community by selling his
whole collection, and he did it with a smile on his face.
When a good quality Star Wars collection is up
for sale, the most likely candidate to buy the merchandise
is, to no surprise, another collector - as was the case with
the Melbourne man mentioned previously. Thus as the number of
serious collectors begin to decrease other Star Wars
collections, profiting from these great sales, get larger and
larger. The problem is that as time goes on, the number of
sellers Vs the number of buyers becomes increasingly
disproportionate.
Thus allowing for the three categories (or
four if you include the “loss of interest” option)
mentioned above, I’m willing to surmise that in 10 years
time, our initial 100 collectors will have been reduced to
about 70. This means that 30 collectors will have succumbed
to the “categories of doom” and sold up their
wares, while the remaining 70 continue the hunt for Star Wars
collectables that, by then, will more than likely have gone
out of production as interest in Star Wars will have abated.
However it doesn’t stop there. …
Within 20 years time, Star Wars, at least in
the eyes of the general populace, will be forgotten.
Merchandise will no longer be on store shelves and will be a
lot harder to find, in the process more and more collectors
will have sold up as the “categories of doom”
consume them at an increasing rate. Star Wars collecting
itself will not only become a battle of attrition, but a
battle that only a dwindling number of people will actually care
about. People WILL have families, they WILL have new
interests and they WILL have higher priorities. Ultimately
these massive Star Wars collections that we all love so much
today will slowly become relics of the past as more and more
of them take a back seat to the natural evolution of people
getting older.
Subsequently, as time goes on you’ll see
more collectors selling their collections at really low
prices, and those collectors who are still hanging in there
will reap the collecting and financial benefits of this
trend. The only salvation to this is the hope that Collectors
who give in to the “categories of doom” sell or
donate their collections to the right people. The more
ghastly alternative is that they will open up those rare mint
in packet items and give them to the kids (or the dog) to
play with, or even worse that they will simply throw their
collections out. As ‘obscene’ as this scenario
sounds, it is nevertheless highly likely that many
collections, one way or another, will be destroyed as the
evils of time catch up with them.
All is not doom and gloom, however, as in 30 +
years I believe there will still exist a small tight knit
community of collectors who will relish the memory of
today’s Star Wars collecting era. As for everyone else,
with their mortgages, kids and spouses, they will exist in
the class of “I used to have one of those”
type of people, as they walk past the antique store seeing
the quaint Star Wars collectables inside.
Thus in the end, I believe only 2 of the
original 100 collections will still exist, which forms the
basis of the 2% theory. Considering people barely have enough
motivation as it is to transport possessions, antiques and
family heirlooms around for their whole life, these 2 vast
Star Wars collections will be worth a staggering amount by
today’s standards, unfortunately though in 40 years time
it’s likely they will become more curiosities than
anything else.
There is still, however, a ray of light in
this seemingly hopeless scenario, and that is the salvation
from the new breed of collectors who ironically haven’t
even been born yet. There is no reason to doubt that a bare
handful of people in their 20s-30’s will show an
interest in that “old” Star Wars phenomenon and
will want to become a part of it. It is my belief - and my
hope - that these people will be the ones to carry the legacy
of Star Wars collecting into the next generation and beyond.
So many people have invested so much in these
magnificent examples of Star Wars dedication to simply have
them lost or destroyed. Ultimately though, some collections
will survive and many will die, our hope though is that one
way or another, a Star Wars collection somewhere will live
on.
Phil was rather concerned when I explained all
this to him, however he conceded the likelihood that these
events would unfold. Ironically though the big question is
still yet to be answered and that is “who’s
collection will make up that final 2%?” Indeed …. only
time will tell.